Rough Rice (ZR) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Planting & Harvest • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | CBOT (CME Group) / ZR (Rough Rice) |
|---|---|
| Contract Size | 2,000 cwt (hundredweight) = 200,000 lb ≈ 90.7 metric tons |
| Tick Size | $0.005 per cwt (½ cent) = $10 per contract |
| Point Value | $0.01 per cwt = $20 per contract; $1.00 per cwt = $2,000 |
| Contract Months | Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (designated US warehouses) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$1,600–$2,000 initial (broker/exchange dependent) |
| Trading Hours (U.S. / EU) | Globex (electronic): 08:00 – 14:20 CT → 15:00 – 21:20 CET (Winter) • 16:00 – 22:20 CEST (Sommer) |
| Last Trading Day | Business day prior to the 15th of the contract month |
| Commission Example | ~$3 / side (Futures) or CFD-Äquivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Rough Rice tends to firm into late winter / spring on acreage and weather uncertainty, and often softens during the main US harvest (Aug–Oct). Seasonality is less smooth than in Wheat/Corn due to thinner liquidity.
- 📈 Bullish window: Feb – May (acreage & early weather risk)
- 📉 Bearish window: Aug – Oct (harvest pressure)
- Neutral/variable: Nov – Jan
Seasonal reference: 10–15y average (CBOT Rough Rice continuous).
3️⃣ Planting & Harvest Calendar
| Region | Planting | Harvest |
|---|---|---|
| USA (Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas) | March – May | August – October |
| USA (California – medium/short grain) | April – May | September – October |
| India / Bangladesh | Multiple (Kharif: Jun–Jul) | Multiple (Kharif: Oct–Dec) |
| China | April – June | September – October |
| Vietnam / Thailand | May – July (main) | October – December (main) |
4️⃣ COT Insights
The COT structure is often dominated by commercials (millers/exporters) vs. smaller managed money flows compared to other grains. Signals can be noisier due to thinner participation; I focus on extremes and align them with price/VWAP context.
- COT Index > 85 → potential speculative saturation
- COT Index < 15 → potential washout / reversal zone
- Commercial shorts tend to rise into price strength (forward hedging)
Reference: CFTC “Rough Rice – Chicago Board of Trade”.
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| WASDE (World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates) | USDA | Monthly (~10–12th) |
| Crop Progress (Rice) | USDA | Weekly, Mon 22:00 CET |
| Export Sales (Rice) | USDA | Weekly, Thu 14:30 CET |
| Quarterly Grain Stocks / Acreage | USDA/NASS | Quarterly / Mar & Jun |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Fri 21:30 CET |
| Asian Export Prices (Thai/Vietnam 5%) | Trade/FAO | Weekly |
6️⃣ Global Production & Supply
Rice is a staple food crop; global production centers in Asia. US Rough Rice futures reflect primarily US long-grain supply, but are influenced by Asia’s export prices and policy.
- Top producers: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, Pakistan, Cambodia
- Major exporters: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, USA
- Key importers: China, Philippines, Nigeria, Indonesia, Middle East/N. Africa
7️⃣ Production Costs (indicative)
| Region | Cost (per t, approx.) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| USA (South) | $220 – $280 | Pump/irrigation, fertilizer & fuel sensitive |
| India / Bangladesh | $120 – $170 | Lower inputs, high policy influence |
| Vietnam / Thailand | $150 – $200 | Export logistics & quality premiums |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Linked to Asian rice export prices (Thai/Vietnam benchmarks)
- Weak substitution vs Wheat/Corn (food staple vs feed)
- USD strength can pressure export competitiveness
- ETF/CFD proxies: Rice CFDs (broker); broad Ag ETFs (limited direct exposure)
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
Rough Rice is thinner and can gap more than other grains—manage order sizing and slippage. I align trades with seasonality/COT extremes and use VWAP clusters for entries. Best liquidity typically during US morning (15:30–19:00 CET).
- Watch Asian export price trends (Thai 5% / Viet 5%).
- Avoid chasing during low-liquidity hours and rollover weeks.
- Harvest period (Aug–Oct) often brings supply-led softness.